By Anne Ryman
Read the original article at The Tennessean.
Now that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's chance for the Democratic presidential nomination is over, expect Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama to court the crucial women's vote.
Female voters, especially older white women, were among Clinton's key supporters, and she carried the women's vote in most of the 22 contests she won.
Women vote in larger numbers than men, and they often lean Democratic, making them a sought-after demographic. The last time a Republican won the women's vote was 20 years ago when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis. But a Republican candidate doesn't necessarily have to win the majority of the women's vote as long as he can narrow the gap between women and men enough to still win the popular vote, political scientists say.
"The women's vote is important to both their campaigns. Women will decide this election," predicted Dianne Bystrom, director of the Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University.
With just a couple of exceptions, the states that Clinton won were the same states where she carried 52 percent or more of the women's vote, Bystrom said.
McCain has work to do
A recent survey by the Pew Research Center indicates that McCain may have a tougher time with female voters. Both Clinton and Obama led McCain among registered female voters by double-digits — Clinton 53 percent to 39 percent, and Obama 52 percent to 39 percent.
Among white women, McCain had a slight edge over Obama with 46 percent to 45 percent, but trailed Clinton 45 percent to 48 percent.
If past elections are an indication, McCain could win as long as the gender gap — the difference between men and women voting for a candidate — is narrow. President Bush's ability to increase his share of the women's vote from 43 percent in 2000 to 48 percent in 2004 is viewed as a major reason he won re-election.
McCain could face a tough sell with women, said Bystrom. They were the first demographic group to turn against the war in Iraq, something that McCain has staunchly supported.
The fact that McCain is Republican is also a challenge. More women tend to be Democrats. They generally want government to take a larger role in their lives than the traditional Republican stance of limited government, she said. Men, by comparison, tend to lean more Republican and prefer a limited role of government.
Focus will be on issues
Bystrom predicted that McCain will fail to win the majority of the women's vote, but if he can narrow the gender gap to 6 or 7 percent, that may be enough to win the election.
McCain also needs to reach out to female voters on issues they care about such as the economy and health care, Bystrom said. McCain will have the most success targeting married, white women who tend to lean Republican. Often referred to as "soccer moms" or "security moms," they could help him narrow the gender gap.
For Obama, the key is to target unmarried women: young single women, divorcees, single mothers and widows, experts said. They tend to lean Democratic.
Obama also needs to emphasize his differences with McCain, Bystrom said.
One topic Obama hasn't talked about much, she said, is his opposition to a constitutional amendment or federal law banning abortion. McCain, by contrast, opposes abortion except in cases or rape or incest or to protect the mother's life.
Obama "needs to start talking specifically about issues that women are interested in. Women are going to want to have a lot more details on his proposals on the economy, on health care," she said.
