Unmarried Women Leaning Heavily to Obama,
Supporting Dems in Battleground Congressional Races
A poll released today by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows the power of marital status in determining who a voter supports – that whether or not a person is married matters more in predicting their vote than their gender, age, or race. Unmarried women, including older women and older white women, are overwhelming supporting progressives, like Obama and the Democrats, while married women of all demographics are much more closely divided between Obama and McCain.
“Whether or not you’re married has extraordinary power in determining how you vote,” said Page Gardner, President and Founder of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, which sponsored the poll. “If you’re on your own, you’re more likely to be economically vulnerable, without health insurance, and struggling to make ends meet – and you’re much more likely to vote for the more progressive candidate.”
Findings from the poll, conducted August 12-18th, include:
- Among women under 40: Obama leads by 34 points with younger unmarried women – but by only 2 points with younger married women, a “marriage gap” of 32 points.
- Among women 40 and over: McCain leads with older married women by 5 points – but Obama is actually in the lead with older unmarried women, with a full 26 point margin, for a “marriage gap” of 31 points.
- Among white women under 40: But does this pattern hold if you don’t include black women? Yes. Among white married women under 40, McCain leads by 6 points; among unmarried, Obama leads by 16, a 22 point “marriage gap.”
- Among white women over 40: The same trend holds in the older group. Among white married women 40 and over, McCain leads by 2 points; among unmarried, Obama leads by 14, a 26 point “marriage gap.”
- In down-ticket battleground races: a battleground survey of unmarried women shows Democratic candidates leading 61 to 29 percent in named congressional trial heats.
While these numbers are encouraging for Democrats, Gardner emphasized that they will only be meaningful if unmarried women register and go to the polls – and they’ve historically fallen behind their married peers in terms of actual votes cast. While unmarried women are more engaged this cycle than they have been in the past, Gardner says all of the campaigns still have a lot of work to do if they want to engage these women.
