St. Louis, MO, October 2nd, 2008.

Not unlike her nomination speech, Sarah Palin managed to meet—and even exceed—the low expectations set for her in the Vice Presidential debate. She avoided the train wreck many anticipated. But in focus group research among undecided women, many women found her skilled in delivering sound bites, but less adept at giving these undecided voters the answers they needed. The result may have been a missed opportunity to revive the sinking McCain-Palin ticket. The news today that McCain was pulling out of Michigan suggests Palin needed a big night; instead, she managed only a draw.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted qualitative research commissioned by the Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund in the swing state of Colorado among 40 undecided women voters, half of whom were married women, half unmarried. Participants answered a series of questions about the election, the candidates, their views on McCain, Obama, Biden and Palin. They then watched debate followed by another series of questions on many of the same topics. Two follow-up focus group discussions conducted separately among married and unmarried women explored reactions to the debate in detail. This is a qualitative exercise and not a representative survey, but limited movement we see suggest tonight was not the “game-changer” the McCain ticket needed.

•  All 40 participants started the night undecided. After the debate, 8 supported Obama-Biden, 8 supported McCain-Palin, the rest remained undecided. Biden did better among unmarried women, converting 5, compared to 3 in the married group. Those who moved to Obama still complained about Palin’s inexperience and indicated disappointment with Palin’s “coached” performance and “sound-bite” driven performance. Importantly, however, Joe Biden also impressed a significant number of women, reassuring some who were worried about Obama’s number of years in office.

•  Personally, the women in the groups warmed up to both candidates and warmed up to both equally. Joe Biden raised his thermometer (favorability) score nine points, as did Sarah Palin.

•  Many women found Palin strong, assertive and confident. She went “toe-to-toe” with Biden and never backed down. Her strongest issue was energy, which both married and unmarried women flagged as one issue she seemed to know something beyond a debate prep book. On the down side, some women found her overly coached, not substantive, and too quick with sound bites. Her folksiness endeared her to some women, grated on others. Notably, however, in pre-interviews only 10 women did not believe she was ready to be vice president and step in as president if need be; at the end of the night, this number climbed up to 21.

•  Biden acquitted himself well. A handful of women found him too much of an old-fashioned pol, but the broader theme to emerge was Biden’s ability to demonstrate warmth and humanity. Several women teared up when Biden recounted the tragic death of his wife and daughter. But Biden’s command of one issue, critical especially to unmarried voters, really elevated his performance: the economy. His ability to relate to the concerns of the middle class, his critique of the last eight years, and his ability to sketch a portrait of change under an Obama leadership proved his strongest moment. At the beginning of the groups, 14 women preferred Biden over Palin on the economy; this number jumped to 23 women at the end of the groups.

•  Biden’s critique of the McCain’s health care plan also scored real points: 20 women who believe he would do a better job on this critical issue (up from 9). Among unmarried women, Biden improved from 6 preferring him on health care to 12 by the end of the evening. Unmarried women in the break group in particular needed to hear a real plan from the McCain-Palin ticket. Instead, they heard platitudes.

Both Palin and Biden impressed these women in different ways. Palin avoided the train-wreck many predicted. Biden introduced himself to voters who, despite his years in office, really did not know him. He reassured voters nervous about Obama’s inexperience. In the end, this debate did not change the minds of most women in the groups. It did not change the game.

About Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is the world's premium research and strategic consulting firm, working with corporations, issue groups, and political campaigns throughout the United States and around the world. Find out more about us, along with the latest research and commentary from our principals and analysts, at www.greenbergresearch.com. 

Please direct all questions, comments, or press inquiries to: Jaclyn Macek, Communications Director: 202 478 8300 / jmacek@gqrr.com