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The Rising American Electorate Drives Obama’s Gains in New Polling

July 2, 2012

President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by a 3-point margin, 49 percent to 46 percent (a net 3-point improvement since last month), according to the latest national survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps.  Obama’s gains, according to the polling analysis, have come entirely from the Rising American Electorate (RAE) — unmarried women, African Americans and Latinos, and young people — the broad coalition of voters who supported him enthusiastically in 2008.

Obama has moved his vote up among the RAE from 60 to 63 percent.  The gains have come with African Americans (Obama’s vote is up from 88 to 95 percent) and unmarried women (up from 60 to 63 percent).  Obama has improved his vote margin with young people by 15 points since the beginning of this year with that gain coming from African-American youth primarily.

Obama’s gains have also come disproportionately in the battleground states. The shifts there may reflect the sharp attacks on Romney’s economic record and better than average economic performance in key states.


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