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The Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund (WVWVAF) and Democracy Corps today released a major new poll of likely voters showing that engagement in the election is rising substantially among the Rising American Electorate, or people of color, unmarried women and millennials. According to the survey, Hillary Clinton holds a 13-point margin against Donald Trump and a 6-point lead over Ted Cruz, driven in part by a massive marriage gap among women.
Marital status determines whether and how one registers and votes. Candidates, campaigns and pundits who don’t understand the key role of the marriage gap just don’t get it.
The new poll shows why. Married women are supporting Donald Trump by a slim 3-point margin (48% to 45%), while unmarried women are supporting Hillary Clinton by a 52-point margin (73% to 21%). That’s a 55-point marriage gap – the biggest we have ever seen.
What’s more, the poll—which pollster Stan Greenberg refers to as a potential “earthquake”—shows the potential for a disruptive election across the board. Democrats already hold a 6-point lead in the congressional ballot and are closing the engagement gap, while the GOP brand sinks to a new low and Republicans are ready to split off down-ballot whether the congressional Republican candidate supports Trump or not.
The new findings underscore and complement what we learned from the focus groups we did earlier this month with unmarried women in Ohio.
Sixty-six percent of the people surveyed in this poll said Trump’s anti-women comments and opinions gave them doubts about Trump. Voters also think Trump is dangerous – a threat to national security and someone who would hurt our standing internationally.
Page Gardner, President and Founder of WVWVAF, said: “Unmarried women will play a pivotal role in the election and are increasingly enthusiastic about voting, our new polling shows. The prospect of a Trump presidency is motivating single women to vote against him, and today we see the largest marriage gap, +55 points, that we’ve ever witnessed in more than a decade of research. Unmarried women, people of color and millennials are finding Donald Trump to be dangerous for the country and their livelihoods, and the new poll numbers makes clear that these voters will once again play the make-or-break role in the election.”
To read the full results of the survey and a memo by Democracy Corps on the new findings, please click here: