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WVWVAF Battleground Survey in Nine Competitive States Shows Big Gains for Clinton, Massive Marriage Gap

June 30, 2016

The Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund (WVWVAF) today released a unique poll showing significant gains for presidential contender Hillary Clinton in nine competitive battleground states. Conducted by Democracy Corps, the survey of 2,700 likely voters—in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—has Donald Trump faltering in the Rust Belt, Clinton running stronger than Trump across other racially diverse battleground states, and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson coming on strong.

Trump is losing to Clinton by 8 points across the Rust Belt battleground states and runs no better than former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the survey shows. Clinton is beating Trump by 8 points overall in a 2-way race and by 7 points in a 3-way race with Trump and Johnson.

The WVWVAF survey shows that Trump’s path in the battleground is blocked by the segments of the Rising American Electorate – unmarried women, people of color and young Americans. Unmarried women favor Clinton over Trump for a massive “marriage gap” of +40 points, as compared to support from married women. For white unmarried women, the gap is +19 for Clinton, a potentially insurmountable divide for Trump.

“The women’s vote is not monolithic and marital status is a more accurate predictor of voter participation and preference than gender alone,” said Page Gardner, President and Founder of WVWVAF. “Unmarried women decide elections and the threat of a Trump presidency is very motivating to them, which is why our poll found one of the largest marriage gaps we’ve ever witnessed.”

The poll shows Clinton losing married women by one point, and doing especially poorly with white married women. There are other cautionary signs for Clinton. The survey reveals that millennials, and particularly white millennials, are underperforming for Clinton in the battlegrounds.

The survey also looks at down-ballot results of the race. Trump is only winning 38 percent of the vote across the Senate battleground, the poll shows, with one-quarter of those voting Republican for Senate saying they will definitely vote for Democratic candidates come November.

The survey took place June 11 to June 20, with a margin of error for the full sample = +/-1.89 percentage points at 95% confidence.



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