NEW BATTLEGROUND POLLING: Rising American Electorate Frustrated With Trump’s Economy

Action Fund Research — July 13, 2018

Democratic Generic Gains In GOP-Held Cook Districts

Millennials and African Americans Turnout Concerns For Midterm

The Rising American Electorate – unmarried women, people of color, and young people – are frustrated with the economy and health care costs under Donald Trump and, as a result, are more motivated to vote in the midterm elections, according to the latest groundbreaking research from Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund (WVWVAF) and Democracy Corps. Democrats are up five points in the 33 GOP-held Cook competitive House races. And the Trump-Republican midterm strategy to run on tax cuts for the rich and increase polarization is backfiring – actually pushing RAE and college women voters to become more likely to vote in November.

Wave Two of this innovative research program in twelve battleground states with key gubernatorial, Senate, Congressional, and state legislative races combines a phone poll of 1,000 registered voters with an on-going web-panel of the same 1,800 RAE voters and white working class women from April’s Wave One study.

“Donald Trump lives in a fantasy land on the economy. Not only are Republicans failing to help the Rising American Electorate with wages that don’t keep up with costs like health care, they pushed through tax cuts for the rich that aren’t benefitting the RAE,” said Page Gardner, president and founder of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund. “Trump and the Republicans’ failure to improve the economy and health care for the RAE is leading to increases in motivation to vote in the midterms from unmarried women, people of color, and young people.”

Click here to view the research memo.

Click here to view the research presentation.

The latest online panel and phone poll in 12 battleground states – Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin – shows that races for Governor, Senate, and Congress are nationalizing as Donald Trump’s approval remains unchanged over the last two months. In 33 Cook Political competitive races where the seat is currently by a Republican, the head-to-head has a generic Democrat leading by five points.

The RAE remains concerned that wages aren’t keeping up with costs, especially health care and prescription drug costs. At the same time, there are warning signs among millennials and African Americans who are less likely to turnout in the battleground.

This research is part of WVWVAF’s investment in groundbreaking research with Democracy Corps and Greenberg Research to chart and measure the shifting perceptions and engagement of the Rising American Electorate – unmarried women, people of color, and millennials – and white working class women voters under the Trump Administration. The innovative research program combines a phone poll of 1,000 registered voters with an on-going web-panel of 1,800 Rising American Electorate voters – unmarried women, people of color, and young people – and white working class women to track shifts among the issues, messages, and voting blocs that will determine control of Congress, governors’ mansions, and state legislatures across the country.

 

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