NEW SURVEY: Rising American Electorate and White Working Class Women Poised To Decide Midterms

Action Fund Research — January 24, 2018

Democrats Doubled Their Lead In Congressional Ballot Since October

White Working-Class Women And White Millennials Shifting Away From Trump

Washington, DC—There’s a new coalition forming of the Rising American Electorate and white working-class women, but Democrats need to start speaking to their values and issues if they hope to capitalize in November, according to a groundbreaking study from Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund (WVWVAF) and Democracy Corps’ Stan Greenberg. The third panel from their innovative year-long survey of the same 1,500 people that shows the Rising American Electorate — unmarried women, people of color, and young people — as well as white working-class women are angry at Donald Trump and the Republican Party, but have become less likely to vote over the last year.

Democrats have a fast-shrinking window to mobilize the RAE and white working-class women, and can do that by making sure voters know they will disrupt Washington and knock Trump for not keeping his promises. When the RAE in WVWVAF’s survey heard those messages, they were once again energized to vote in November. Many white working-class women now view Trump as “dangerous” and “out of touch” after living through a year of his presidency, and respond to the same consistent messages about changing the status quo that work with the RAE.

“Democrats are setting themselves up to squander the opportunity Donald Trump is serving them on a silver platter because they aren’t motivating the Rising American Electorate to vote this fall. This groundbreaking study shows Democrats are running out of time to prove themselves to the Rising American Electorate and make sure voters know they will disrupt Washington and knock Trump for not keeping his promises. It looks like the RAE is fed up and starting to tune out. If Democrats want to win, they need to prove themselves to the RAE so they are fed up and mobilized,” said Page Gardner, founder and President of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund.

WVWVAF’s cutting-edge research allows for tracking shifts among the same 1,500 voters in the online survey and 1,000 voters in the national phone poll throughout Donald Trump’s first year in office. Wave One this June showed why subgroups of the Rising American Electorate didn’t vote in higher numbers in the 2016 Election. Wave Two this October showed what messages resonate with the RAE and how candidates can motivate voters by showing they are change agents and will disrupt the status quo. Wave Three this January shows the potential among the RAE and white working class women in particular, who have shifted away from Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the last four months, but exposes the pitfall if voters continue to become less certain they will vote.

WVWVAF’s sister organization, the Voter Participation Center, estimates that 40 million people who voted in 2016 won’t vote in November 2018 — and two-thirds of those people will be members of the Rising American Electorate.

This research is part of WVWVAF’s investment in groundbreaking research with Democracy Corps and Greenberg Research to chart and measure the shifting perceptions and engagement of the Rising American Electorate – unmarried women, people of color, and millennials – and white working-class women voters under the Trump administration. Coupling a national phone survey with an online-panel and a series of periodic web surveys, the program does three “touchpoints” – going back to survey the same 2,500 participants — to allow us to track key political measures as they evolve, as well as mid-term voting intentions among these same people.

Downloads:

Polling Memo (PDF)

Results Deck (PDF)

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