October 2016 Poll of Likely Millennial Voters

Action Fund Research — October 7, 2016

Just two days before the next presidential debate, Page Gardner, President and Founder of the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, announced the release of a new poll of likely millennial voters in 11 crucial battleground states.

The online poll was conducted by Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps in the presidential battleground states of AZ, CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI. Millennials were defined as being born in 1980 or later.

Key findings from the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund poll include:

  • Millennial voters are in a very different place than they were two weeks ago. Democratic millennials have started to consolidate for Hillary Clinton, but their Republican contemporaries have not done the same for Donald Trump.
  • Third-party candidate Gary Johnson’s millennial vote is now a repository for most of those anti-Trump Republicans.
  • Millennials are poised to give Hillary Clinton and Democrats a big margin in November’s election if they are engaged to vote and if progressives are smart in dealing with the third party vote. There’s a lot of work ahead.
  • Clinton now has a gaping 25-point margin over Trump in a four-way race, comparable to Obama’s 2012 performance with millennials in these same battleground states.
  • Clinton is wining huge margins with unmarried women, including white unmarried women (+41 Clinton and +22, respectively), and is winning 78 percent of minority millennial voters.
  • She has a 12 point margin with white college graduates, including a 20-point margin with white college women, and gets a respectable 44 percent with white working class millennial women.

Page Gardner said the new WVWVAF poll demonstrates the strength of millennials and other members of the Rising American Electorate (millennials, people of color and unmarried women) to shape elections: “Unmarried women favor Clinton over Trump, creating a massive ‘marriage gap’ between single and married women. For white unmarried women, the gap has become a potentially insurmountable divide for Trump, and our new poll shows that millennials also are uniting around Clinton,” Gardner said. “The electoral power of the Rising American Electorate has never been more evident. They clearly are in a position to determine election outcomes up and down the ballot.”

 

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