September 2016 Battleground State Poll

Action Fund Research — September 23, 2016

With only 45 days until Election Day and in the wake of the upcoming Presidential debate, Page Gardner, president and founder of Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, announced the release of a new poll conducted by Stan Greenberg with Democracy Corps in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio.

Key findings from the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund poll include:

  • Hillary Clinton settled into a strong lead in Pennsylvania, a modest one in North Carolina, with Trump and Clinton essentially tied in Ohio and Nevada
  • Clinton is still in position to win the Electoral College majority, in large part because of her stable support with parts of the Rising American Electorate (RAE) and her inroads with swing groups, particularly college graduates, suburban voters and the white working class women who are put off by Trump
  • Unmarried woman and minorities at the heart of the RAE are voting for Clinton in force:
    • Three-quarters of minorities are voting for Clinton in these battleground states
    • 62 percent of unmarried women support Clinton with the majority of white unmarried women supporting Clinton 52 percent- 31 percent for Trump
    • Unmarried women are showing respectable levels of voter engagement with unmarried women and Democrats falling just 2-3 points below Republicans in saying this election matters tremendously
  • Millennials are in an anti-establishment mood, and one-third of millennials are now not voting for a major party candidate. When it comes to white millennials Clinton and Trump are running close to even– 33 Clinton to 32 Trump, with 28 percent voting for 3rd party candidates
  • Donald Trump’s vote is driven primarily by the white working class men who are the backbone of the Republican presidential coalition and they are 30 percent of the Trump vote
 

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